| 1 $JOB FORSAL $EXECUTE FORTRAN 1 * ID FORSAL 1 * PID 926 COMPILE AND XEQ * XEQ 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 1 C PROGRAM TO FORECAST SALES 001 1000 FORMAT(12I6) 002 1001 FORMAT(6F12.6) 003 1002 FORMAT(1H0/6X,9HPERIOD ISI4,11X,1HP,4X,12HACTUAL SALES,11X, 004 816HFORECASTED SALES/29X,3H---,3X,12H------------,11X,16H---------- 005 9------) 006 1003 FORMAT(1H ,28X,I2,4X,F13.6,12X,F13.6) 007 1011 FORMAT(1H1,47X24HSALES FORECASTING OUTPUT/48X,24H----------------- 008 1-------/53X,11HPRODUCT NO.,I2/53X,13H-------------) 009 1012 FORMAT(1H0/22X,25HOPTIMAL WEIGHTS..........,4X,2HA=,F7.4,10X, 010 22HB=,F7.4,10X,2HC=,F7.4///22X,25HCURRENT ESTIMATES........, 011 34X,2HS=,F14.6//51X,2HR=,F14.6//(51X,2HF(,I2,2H)=,F10.6)) 012 1013 FORMAT(1H0/22X,29HMEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS// 013 5(51X,6HSMEAN(,I1,2H)=,F13.7,10X,5HSDEV(,I1,2H)=,F13.7)) 014 1014 FORMAT(1H1,5X,11HPRODUCT NO.,I2,24H SALES FORECAST FOR A=,F7.4, 015 63X,2HB=,F7.4,3X,2HC=,F7.4 /6X,68H--------------------------------- 016 7-----------------------------------) 017 1015 FORMAT(1H0/20X23HINPUT CRITERIA.........,4X2HD=,I4,6X2HH=,I3, 018 16X3HQ1=,I3,6X3HQ2=,I3//47X2HL=,I4,6X2HN=,I3,7X2HP=,I3,7X2HM=,I3/// 019 220X23HOPTIONS USED...........,4X7HOPT(1)=,I1,4X7HOPT(2)=,I1, 020 33X7HOPT(3)=,I1,4X7HOPT(4)=,I1///20X23HWEIGHTS USED..........., 021 47X1HA,11X1HB,10X1HC,12X3HPHI/50X1H-,11X1H-,10X1H-,12X3H---) 022 1016 FORMAT(47X,F7.4,5X,F7.4,4X,F7.4,3X,F16.6) 023 1020 FORMAT(1H0,83HYOU HAVE NOT CONFORMED WITH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING INP 024 $UT RESTRICTIONS FOR PRODUCT NO.,I2//20X35H1. H MUST BE INTEGRAL MU 025 $LTIPLE OF N/20X38H2. Q1 MUST BE LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO Q2/ 026 $20X39H3. Q2 MUST BE LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO D-P/20X41H4. M MUST BE E 027 4QUAL TO 1 OR GREATER THAN 2) 028 1021 FORMAT(56H0APPARENT MACHINE ERROR. INPUT MAY BE FAULTY FOR PRODUCT 029 1I3) 030 1023 FORMAT(1H0,95HTHE NUMBER OF OUTPUTS DESIRED DOES NOT CONFORM WITH 031 1STANDARDS. PROGRAM WILL GIVE ONE OUTPUT. ) 032 DIMENSION W(120),S(10000),V(100),FSAVE(120),G(120),SHAT(120), 033 1SHAT1(600),FPERM(120),SPERH1(240),SMEAN(30),SDEV(30),NOPT(4) 034 C INITIALIZATION 035 NTAP1=5 036 NTAP10=6 037 NTAP9=4 038 REWIND NTAP9 039 EPSI=0.000001 040 READ INPUT TAPE NTAP1,1000,NINPUT 041 C 041.1 C LOOP FOR EACH PRODUCT 041.3 C 041.5 C INITIALIZE AND COMPUTE INITIAL VALUE OF S(0),R(0),F(0), 041.7 C 041.9 0011 DO105KMAJOR=1,NINPUT 042 JFK1=1 043 FSUM=0. 044 13 READ INPUT TAPE NTAP1,1000,ID,IH,IQ1,IQ2,L,N,IP,M,(NOPT(I),I=1,4) 045 READ INPUT TAPE NTAP1,1001,(W(I),I=1,IP) 046 15 READ INPUT TAPE NTAP1,1001,(S(I),I=1,ID) 047 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP10,1011,KMAJOR 048 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP10,1015,ID,IH,IQ1,IQ2,L,N,IP,M,(NOPT(I),I=1, 049 14) 050 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 2 IF(NOPT(1))10,10,3 051 3 JFK1=2 052 10 IQ11=IQ1-1 053 IQ11=IQ1-1 054 JIQ1=(IQ11-(N*(IQ11/N)))+1 055 0023 JIQ2=IQ2-(N*(IQ2/N))+1 056 0025 IHDN=IH/N 057 IF(IH-(N*IHDN))16,17,16 058 16 PRINT 1020,KMAJOR 059 DO 14 LABC=1,L 060 14 READ INPUT TAPE NTAP1,1001,A,B,C 061 GO TO 105 062 0017 IDMP=ID-IP 063 ITEMP=IDMP+1 064 JPERM=ITEMP-(N*(ITEMP/N))+1 065 IF(IDMP-IQ2)16,18,18 066 0018 IF(IQ2-IQ1)16,19,19 067 0019 FN=N 068 FN1D2=(FN+1.)*(.5) 069 FIH=IH 070 FIHDN=IHDN 071 FIHMN=IH-N 072 FIQ1=IQ1 073 IQ21=IQ2-1 074 KL=IDMP-IQ21 075 FKL=KL 076 MM1=M-1 077 IF(MM1)16,28,24 078 0024 FMM1=MM1 079 IDEN=KL/MM1 080 DEN=IDEN 081 0028 SSAVE=0. 082 PHI=3.*(10.**35) 083 DO27L3=1,IHDN 084 V(L3)=0 085 L1=(N*(L3-1))+1 086 L2=N*L3 087 DO26J=L1,L2 088 0026 V(L3)=V(L3)+S(J) 089 SSAVE=SSAVE+V(L3) 090 0027 V(L3)=V(L3)/FN 091 IF(IH-N) 16,29,38 092 38 IF(NOPT(3))31,31,29 093 0029 RSAVE=0. 094 GO TO32 095 0031 RSAVE=(V(IHDN)-V(1))/FIHMN 096 0032 SSAVE=(SSAVE/FIH)-(((FIH*.5)-FIQ1)*RSAVE) 097 IF(SSAVE) 43,44,44 098 43 SSAVE=0. 099 44 IF(NOPT(4)) 34,34,33 100 0033 DO36K=1,N 101 0036 FSAVE(K)=1. 102 GO TO37 103 0034 DO40K=1,N 104 MY=0 105 FK=K 106 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 3 FSAVE(K)=0. 107 TEMP=(FN1D2-FK)*RSAVE 108 DO35I=K,IH,N 109 MY=MY+1 110 0035 FSAVE(K)=FSAVE(K)+(S(I)/(V(MY)-TEMP)) 111 FSAVE(K)=FSAVE(K)/FIHDN 112 IF(FSAVE(K)) 46,40,40 113 46 FSAVE(K)=0. 114 0040 FSUM=FSUM+FSAVE(K) 115 IF(NOPT(2))37,37,41 116 0041 DO42K=1,N 117 0042 FSAVE(K)=FSAVE(K)*(FN/FSUM) 118 C 118.3 C LOOP TO TEST SET OF WEIGHTS 118.6 C 118.9 0037 DO85JFK=1,L 119 READ INPUT TAPE NTAP1,1001,A,B,C 120 126 IF(NOPT(3))3001,3001,3000 121 3000 C=0. 122 3001 IF(NOPT(4))3003,3003,3002 123 3002 B=0. 124 3003 GO TO(3004,124),JFK1 125 124 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP9,1014,KMAJOR,A,B,C 126 3004 SLAST=SSAVE 127 RLAST=RSAVE 128 DO45J=1,N 129 0045 G(J)=FSAVE(J) 130 A1=1.-A 131 B1=1.-B 132 C1=1.-C 133 J=JIQ1 134 C 134.2 C UPDATE INITIAL VALUES OF S(0),R(0),F(0), 134.4 C TO FIND S(LAST),R(LAST),F(LAST), FOR THIS SET OF WEIGHTS 134.6 C 134.8 0050 DO55MO=IQ1,IQ2 135 IF(ABSF(G(J))-EPSI) 58,58,51 136 58 SCUR=A1*(SLAST+RLAST)+A*S(MO) 137 GO TO 59 138 51 SCUR=A*(S(MO)/G(J))+(A1*(SLAST+RLAST)) 139 59 IF(SCUR) 62,56,54 140 62 SCUR=0. 141 GO TO 56 142 54 G(J)=B*(S(MO)/SCUR)+(B1*G(J)) 143 56 RCUR=C*(SCUR-SLAST)+(C1*RLAST) 144 SLAST=SCUR 145 RLAST=RCUR 146 IF(J-N)55,53,84 147 0053 J=0 148 0055 J=J+1 149 C 149.2 C LOOP OVER FORCAST PERIODS Q2 TO (D-P) AND 149.4 C FORECAST EACH TIME OVER P PERIODS FOR THIS SET OF WEIGHTS 149.6 C 149.8 0060 TEMP=0. 150 J=JIQ2 151 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 4 DO80MO=IQ2,IDMP 152 J1=J 153 GO TO(57,76),JFK1 154 76 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP9,1002,MO 155 C 155.3 C FORECAST FOR P PERIODS,STARTING FROM THE PRESENT PERIOD 155.6 C 155.9 0057 DO65K=1,IP 156 FK=K 157 SHAT(K)=(SCUR+(FK*RCUR))*G(J1) 158 IF(SHAT(K)) 69,70,70 159 69 SHAT(K)=0. 160 70 MOK=MO+K 161 TEMP=TEMP+(W(K)*((SHAT(K)-S(MOK ))**2.)) 162 GO TO(64,61),JFK1 163 61 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP9,1003,K,S(MOK),SHAT(K) 164 0064 IF(J1-N)65,63,84 165 0063 J1=0 166 0065 J1=J1+1 167 C 167.2 C PROCEED TO COMPUTE S(LAST),R(LAST),F(LAST), 167.4 C FOR EACH PERIOD BETWEEN Q2 AND (D-P) 167.6 C 167.8 IF(ABSF(G(J))-EPSI) 66,66,67 168 66 SCUR=A1*(SLAST+RLAST)+A*S(MO+1) 169 GO TO 71 170 67 SCUR=A*(S(MO+1)/G(J))+(A1*(SLAST+RLAST)) 171 71 IF(SCUR) 72,68,74 172 72 SCUR=0. 173 GO TO 68 174 74 G(J)=B*(S(MO+1)/SCUR)+(B1*G(J)) 175 68 RCUR=C*(SCUR-SLAST)+(C1*RLAST) 176 SLAST=SCUR 177 RLAST=RCUR 178 IF(J-N)75,73,84 179 0073 J=0 180 0075 J=J+1 181 MOIQ=MO-IQ21 182 0080 SHAT1(MOIQ )=SHAT(1) 183 TEMP=TEMP/FKL 184 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP10,1016,A,B,C,TEMP 185 IF(PHI-TEMP)85,85,81 186 0081 PHI=TEMP 187 AP=A 188 BP=B 189 CP=C 190 RPERM=RCUR 191 SPERM=SCUR 192 DO82K=1,N 193 0082 FPERM(K)=G(K) 194 DO83K=1,KL 195 0083 SPERH1(K)=SHAT1(K) 196 GO TO 85 197 84 PRINT 1021,KMAJOR 198 LABC=L-JFK 199 IF(LABC) 105,105,106 200 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 5 106 DO 107 LA=1,LABC 201 107 READ INPUT TAPE NTAP1,1001,A,B,C 202 GO TO 105 203 0085 CONTINUE 204 C 204.2 C USING OPTIMAL SET OF WEIGHT 204.4 C COMPUTE S(BAR) AND SIGMA 204.6 C 204.8 IF(IP-1) 111,111,89 205 89 AP1=1.-AP 206 BP1=1.-BP 207 CP1=1.-CP 208 N1=IDMP+2 209 J=JPERM 210 DO110 K=N1,ID 211 IF(ABSF(FPERM(J))-EPSI) 86,86,87 212 86 SCUR=AP1*(SPERM+RPERM)+AP*S(K) 213 GO TO 102 214 87 SCUR=AP*(S(K)/FPERM(J))+(AP1*(SPERM+RPERM)) 215 102 IF(SCUR) 100,88,101 216 100 SCUR=0. 217 GO TO 88 218 101 FPERM(J)=BP*(S(K)/SCUR)+(BP1*FPERM(J)) 219 88 RCUR=CP*(SCUR-SPERM)+(CP1*RPERM) 220 SPERM=SCUR 221 RPERM=RCUR 222 IF(J-N)110,112,52 223 112 J=0 224 110 J=J+1 225 111 SDEV=0. 226 SMEAN(1)=0. 227 DO90K=IQ2,IDMP 228 K1=K+1 229 SMEAN(1)=SMEAN(1)+S(K1) 230 KIQ2=K-IQ21 231 0090 SDEV(1)=SDEV(1)+((SPERH1(KIQ2 )-S(K1 ))**2.) 232 SMEAN(1)=SMEAN(1)/FKL 233 SDEV(1)=SDEV(1)/FKL 234 SDEV(1)=SQRTF(SDEV(1)) 235 IF(M-2)98,92,93 236 92 PRINT 1023 237 M=1 238 GO TO 98 239 93 IF(KL-(MM1*(IDEN)))92,94,92 240 0094 DO96K=2,M 241 SMEAN(K)=0. 242 SDEV(K)=0. 243 N1=IQ2+IDEN*(K-2) 244 N2=IQ2+(IDEN*(K-1))-1 245 DO95N3=N1,N2 246 N31=N3+1 247 SMEAN(K)=SMEAN(K)+S(N31) 248 N3IQ2=N3-IQ21 249 0095 SDEV(K)=SDEV(K)+((SPERH1(N3IQ2 )-S(N31 ))**2.) 250 SMEAN(K)=SMEAN(K)/DEN 251 SDEV(K)=SDEV(K)/DEN 252 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 6 0096 SDEV(K)=SQRTF(SDEV(K)) 253 98 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP10,1011,KMAJOR 254 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP10,1012,AP,BP,CP,SPERM,RPERM,(J,FPERM(J),J=1 255 2,N) 256 WRITE OUTPUT TAPE NTAP10,1013,(K,SMEAN(K),K,SDEV(K),K=1,M) 257 GO TO 105 258 52 PRINT 1021,KMAJOR 259 C MACHINE ERROR 260 0105 CONTINUE 261 PRINT 1025 261.1 1025 FORMAT(61H0FINAL PROGRAM STOP SEE ON LINE PRINTS FOR ANY ERROR MES 261.2 1SAGES) 261.3 END FILE NTAP10 262 120 END FILE NTAP9 263 REWIND NTAP9 264 CALL EXIT 265 END(1,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0) 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 7 | | 0 STORAGE NOT USED BY PROGRAM | 0 DEC OCT DEC OCT | 13229 31655 32561 77461 0 STORAGE LOCATIONS FOR VARIABLES APPEARING IN DIMENSION AND EQUIVALENCE STATEMENTS | 0 DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT | FPERM 2048 04000 FSAVE 3008 05700 G 2888 05510 NOPT 1628 03134 SDEV 1658 03172 | SHAT1 2648 05130 SHAT 2768 05320 SMEAN 1688 03230 SPERH1 1928 03610 S 13108 31464 | V 3108 06044 W 13228 31654 0 STORAGE LOCATIONS FOR VARIABLES NOT APPEARING IN COMMON, DIMENSION, OR EQUIVALENCE STATEMENT | 0 DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT | A1 1624 03130 AP1 1623 03127 AP 1622 03126 A 1621 03125 B1 1620 03124 | BP1 1619 03123 BP 1618 03122 B 1617 03121 C1 1616 03120 CP1 1615 03117 | CP 1614 03116 C 1613 03115 DEN 1612 03114 EPSI 1611 03113 FIHDN 1610 03112 FIHMN 1609 03111 FIH 1608 03110 FIQ1 1607 03107 FKL 1606 03106 FK 1605 03105 | FMM1 1604 03104 FN1D2 1603 03103 FN 1602 03102 FSUM 1601 03101 IDEN 1600 03100 | IDMP 1599 03077 ID 1598 03076 IHDN 1597 03075 IH 1596 03074 IP 1595 03073 | IQ11 1594 03072 IQ1 1593 03071 IQ21 1592 03070 IQ2 1591 03067 ITEMP 1590 03066 | J1 1589 03065 JFK1 1588 03064 JFK 1587 03063 JIQ1 1586 03062 JIQ2 1585 03061 JPERM 1584 03060 J 1583 03057 K1 1582 03056 KIQ2 1581 03055 KL 1580 03054 | KMAJOR 1579 03053 K 1578 03052 L1 1577 03051 L2 1576 03050 L3 1575 03047 | LABC 1574 03046 L 1573 03045 MM1 1572 03044 MOIQ 1571 03043 MOK 1570 03042 | MO 1569 03041 M 1568 03040 MY 1567 03037 N1 1566 03036 N2 1565 03035 | N31 1564 03034 N3IQ2 1563 03033 N3 1562 03032 NINPUT 1561 03031 N 1560 03030 NTAP10 1559 03027 NTAP1 1558 03026 NTAP9 1557 03025 PHI 1556 03024 RCUR 1555 03023 | RLAST 1554 03022 RPERM 1553 03021 RSAVE 1552 03020 SCUR 1551 03017 SLAST 1550 03016 | SPERM 1549 03015 SSAVE 1548 03014 TEMP 1547 03013 | 0 SYMBOLS AND LOCATIONS FOR SOURCE PROGRAM FORMAT STATEMENTS | 0 EFN LOC EFN LOC EFN LOC EFN LOC EFN LOC 8)V8 1000 02766 8)V9 1001 02765 8)VA 1002 02763 8)VB 1003 02734 8)VJ 1011 02726 | 8)VK 1012 02703 8)VL 1013 02644 8)VM 1014 02620 8)VN 1015 02565 8)VO 1016 02500 | 8)VS 1020 02472 8)VT 1021 02412 8)VV 1023 02377 8)101 1025 02355 | 0 LOCATIONS FOR OTHER SYMBOLS NOT APPEARING IN SOURCE PROGRAM | 0 DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT 1) 1527 02767 2) 1231 02317 3) 1238 02326 4) 32767 77777 6) 1245 02335 | C)G3 1530 02772 C)G4 1531 02773 C)G5 1532 02774 C)G6 1533 02775 C)G7 1534 02776 | C)G8 1535 02777 C)G9 1536 03000 C)GA 1537 03001 C)GB 1538 03002 C)GC 1539 03003 | C)GD 1540 03004 C)GE 1541 03005 C)GF 1542 03006 C)200 1543 03007 C)201 1544 03010 | C)203 1545 03011 C)205 1546 03012 D)201 38 00046 D)21B 462 00716 D)23H 1074 02062 D)23L 1144 02170 D)40C 178 00262 D)41C 472 00730 D)42G 774 01406 D)42P 864 01540 | D)43R 1208 02270 D)61C 471 00727 D)62P 863 01537 D)63R 1207 02267 D)80B 135 00207 | D)812 396 00614 D)81G 495 00757 D)82D 758 01366 D)83B 1004 01754 D)83C 1015 01767 | D)C2D 757 01365 D)E2P 862 01536 E)B 134 00206 E)F 204 00314 E)G 227 00343 | E)1C 470 00726 E)1N 558 01056 E)1Q 576 01100 E)1S 607 01137 E)1T 612 01144 E)25 675 01243 E)29 718 01316 E)37 989 01735 E)5R 587 01113 E)6P 861 01535 | 1 FORSAL 12/01/64 PAGE 8 | | 0 LOCATIONS OF NAMES IN TRANSFER VECTOR | 0 DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT DEC OCT EXIT 11 00013 EXP(2 7 00007 EXP(3 8 00010 SQRT 9 00011 (EFT) 10 00012 | (FIL) 5 00005 (FPT) 0 00000 (RTN) 3 00003 (RWT) 1 00001 (SPH) 6 00006 | (STH) 4 00004 (TSH) 2 00002 | 0 ENTRY POINTS TO SUBROUTINES NOT OUTPUT FROM LIBRARY | EXIT EXP(2 EXP(3 SQRT (EFT) (FIL) (FPT) (RTN) (RWT) (SPH) | (STH) (TSH) | 0 EXTERNAL FORMULA NUMBERS WITH CORRESPONDING INTERNAL FORMULA NUMBERS AND OCTAL LOCATIONS | 0 EFN IFN LOC EFN IFN LOC EFN IFN LOC EFN IFN LOC EFN IFN LOC | 11 24 00041 13 27 00055 15 38 00123 3 52 00201 10 53 00210 23 56 00231 25 57 00244 16 59 00263 14 62 00273 17 65 00315 | 18 69 00344 19 70 00351 24 81 00432 28 84 00452 26 91 00514 | 27 93 00524 38 95 00537 29 96 00543 31 98 00546 32 99 00552 | 43 101 00570 44 102 00572 33 103 00576 36 104 00601 34 106 00606 | 35 113 00647 46 116 00670 40 117 00672 41 119 00705 42 120 00710 37 121 00717 126 124 00743 3000 125 00747 3001 126 00751 3002 127 00755 | 3003 128 00760 124 129 00763 3004 131 01003 45 134 01012 50 139 01033 | 58 141 01043 51 143 01057 59 144 01072 62 145 01075 54 147 01102 | 56 148 01114 53 152 01145 55 153 01151 60 154 01157 76 159 01203 | 57 161 01215 69 165 01240 70 166 01244 61 169 01267 64 171 01305 63 172 01312 65 173 01317 66 175 01335 67 177 01351 71 178 01367 | 72 179 01372 74 181 01375 68 182 01407 73 186 01432 75 187 01436 | 80 189 01450 81 194 01502 82 201 01521 83 203 01530 84 205 01541 | 106 209 01561 107 210 01564 85 213 01605 89 215 01616 86 222 01646 | 87 224 01661 102 225 01674 100 226 01677 101 228 01702 88 229 01712 112 233 01741 110 234 01744 111 235 01755 90 241 02005 92 246 02036 | 93 249 02044 94 250 02054 95 259 02133 96 262 02156 98 263 02171 | 52 277 02256 105 279 02271 120 282 02301 | 1 0LIBRARY ENTRY POINTS, (FPT) (RWT) (TSHM) (RTN) (STHM) (FIL) (SPH) EXP(2 EXP(3 SQRT (EFT) EXIT 0LOGICAL MACHINE TOTAL TOTAL NOISE RECORDS TOTAL REDUNDANCIES POSITIONING TAPE TAPE WRITES READS WRITING READING WRITING READING ERRORS 1 A1 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 2 A4 347 345 0 0 0 0 0 3 B4 41 41 0 0 0 0 0 4 A3 301 323 0 0 0 0 0 5 A2 0 303 0 0 0 0 0 6 B1 341 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 B2 82 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 EXECUTION 1 SALES FORECASTING OUTPUT ------------------------ PRODUCT NO. 1 ------------- 0 INPUT CRITERIA......... D= 36 H= 12 Q1= 1 Q2= 24 L= 29 N= 12 P= 1 M= 1 OPTIONS USED........... OPT(1)=1 OPT(2)=0 OPT(3)=0 OPT(4)=1 WEIGHTS USED........... A B C PHI - - - --- 0. 0. 0. 6.230555 0.0500 0. 0.0500 4.238373 0.0500 0. 0. 4.509546 0.0500 0. 0.0500 4.238373 0.0500 0. 0. 4.509546 0.1000 0. 0.1000 3.894202 0.1000 0. 0. 4.029165 0.1000 0. 0.1000 3.894202 0.1000 0. 0. 4.029165 0.1000 0. 0.1000 3.894202 0.1000 0. 0.1000 3.894202 0.1000 0. 0. 4.029165 0.1000 0. 0. 4.029165 0.1000 0. 0.2000 3.945184 0.1000 0. 0.2000 3.945184 0.2000 0. 0.1000 4.061874 0.2000 0. 0. 3.910772 0.2000 0. 0.1000 4.061874 0.2000 0. 0. 3.910772 0.2000 0. 0.1000 4.061874 0.2000 0. 0.2000 4.210505 0.2000 0. 0.2000 4.210505 0.2000 0. 0.3000 4.373807 0.1000 0. 0.3000 3.991468 0.1000 0. 0. 4.029165 0.1000 0. 0.0500 3.911274 0.0500 0. 0. 4.509546 0.0500 0. 0.1000 4.068278 0.0500 0. 0.1000 4.068278 1 SALES FORECASTING OUTPUT ------------------------ PRODUCT NO. 1 ------------- 0 OPTIMAL WEIGHTS.......... A= 0.1000 B= 0. C= 0.1000 CURRENT ESTIMATES........ S= 11.878345 R= 0.199467 F( 1)= 1.000000 F( 2)= 1.000000 F( 3)= 1.000000 F( 4)= 1.000000 F( 5)= 1.000000 F( 6)= 1.000000 F( 7)= 1.000000 F( 8)= 1.000000 F( 9)= 1.000000 F(10)= 1.000000 F(11)= 1.000000 F(12)= 1.000000 0 MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS SMEAN(1)= 11.5833333 SDEV(1)= 6.2403540 1 SALES FORECASTING OUTPUT ------------------------ PRODUCT NO. 2 ------------- 0 INPUT CRITERIA......... D= 36 H= 12 Q1= 1 Q2= 24 L= 29 N= 12 P= 1 M= 1 OPTIONS USED........... OPT(1)=1 OPT(2)=0 OPT(3)=1 OPT(4)=1 WEIGHTS USED........... A B C PHI - - - --- 0. 0. 0. 3.375000 0.0500 0. 0. 3.519690 0.0500 0. 0. 3.519690 0.0500 0. 0. 3.519690 0.0500 0. 0. 3.519690 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.2000 0. 0. 4.078177 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.1000 0. 0. 3.694758 0.0500 0. 0. 3.519690 0.0500 0. 0. 3.519690 0.0500 0. 0. 3.519690 1 SALES FORECASTING OUTPUT ------------------------ PRODUCT NO. 2 ------------- 0 OPTIMAL WEIGHTS.......... A= 0. B= 0. C= 0. CURRENT ESTIMATES........ S= 4.500000 R= 0. F( 1)= 1.000000 F( 2)= 1.000000 F( 3)= 1.000000 F( 4)= 1.000000 F( 5)= 1.000000 F( 6)= 1.000000 F( 7)= 1.000000 F( 8)= 1.000000 F( 9)= 1.000000 F(10)= 1.000000 F(11)= 1.000000 F(12)= 1.000000 0 MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS SMEAN(1)= 5.1666666 SDEV(1)= 5.8094748